Friday, December 26, 2008

Shocked, dazzled, delighted and learnt to assume nothing but question everything

Steven Levitt Stephen Dubner


Hi,

Freakonomics (Amazon link)I have just finished reading an amazing book.It is "Freakonomics" by Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner, first published in 2005. You may want to browse the book at Amazon.com by clicking on the link at right.

Do you have the answers to the following observations and questions?

Q: A snake bites your friend, he screams with pain and he dies. You concluded that the snakebite killed him. Is your answer correct or wrong?

Q: What do estate agents and Ku Klux Klan have in common?

Q: Why do drug dealers live with their mothers (in the USA)?

Q: How can your name affect how well you do in life?

Q: What do schoolteachers and sumo wrestlers have in common?

Q: Why did violent crime rate fall suddenly in America from early 1990s and the reverse happened in Romania from 1966 to 1989

Q: What makes a perfect parent?

Q: Why is giving a small stipend for donating blood rather than being praised for their altruism, tend to make fewer people donate less blood?

My favourite quote: "Sunlight is said to be the best of disinfectants", by Supreme Court Justice Louis Brandeis. The context is dissemination of information dilutes its power.

In the late 1990s the price of term life insurance fell dramatically (by 1/3?). It was a mystery as there was no obvious cause.....Information is the currency of the internet. The internet is efficient at shifting scattered information from the hands of those who have it into the hands of those who do not. "..the internet acts like a gigantic horseshoe magnet waved over an endless sea of haystacks, plucking the needle out of each one.."

People were able to easily compare the prices of each company offering the insurance and they went for the cheaper offers. This produced competition for consumers and hence the price drop.

The internet has accomplished what no consumer advocate could: it has vastly shrunk the gap between the experts and the public.

Question:
Why parents would allow their young children play with friends who live in houses with swimming pools but not those whose parents keep guns at home?

Answer:
Risk = hazard + outrage (Peter Sandman)
When hazard is high and outrage is low, people under-react, and when hazard is low and outrage is high, they over-react.

This part is of particular relevance to parents and educators:
Some factors that affect school performance was investigate and can you guess which ones matter and which do not matter (= there is no effect on the child's performance in school)?

  1. The child has highly educated parents

  2. The child's family is intact (parents are not divorced, child lives with both parents)

  3. The child's parents have high socio-economic status

  4. The child's parents recently moved into a better neighbourhood

  5. The child's mother was thirty or older at the time of their first child's birth

  6. The child's mother didn't work between birth and kindergarten (mother is housewife)

  7. The child had low birth weight

  8. The child's parents speak English in the home

  9. The child's parents regularly take him to museums

  10. The child is adopted

  11. The child is regularly spanked

  12. The child's parents are involved in the Parent Teacher Meetings

  13. The child frequently watches television

  14. The child has many books in his home

  15. The child's parents read to him nearly everyday


Answer:
Strongly correlated with the performance: A, C, E, G (negatively), H, J (negatively), L and N.

Not related to performance level: B, D, F, I, K, M and O.

Do want to know the explanations for all these intriguing measurable observations?
Visit the school library or the National Library and borrow this book of about 200 pages and find our for yourself.

What I conclude from reading this book: Learn to assume nothing and question everything.

And always remember: correlation does not necessarily mean causation. You may find yourself asking a lot of questions.

BTW, don't blame your parents for everything that does not go right in your lives.

Cheers

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